I should just avoid open houses, period. My husband refuses to go to them now because he knows what's coming. Smart man.... this is what happens when you marry a man with a better education then you >; )
There is a small, rundown house listed at 373K in Davis. The place is trashed as it had been a rental at $1600/mo since it was purchased. As you will see below, this doesn't cover the monthly nut at all. This seller are definately distressed. The sign in fornt of the house says "bring offers".
I asked the agent if the sellers were underwater and she said no (major bad move- they bought at 429k in 05 so do the math). So this is probably an undisclosed short sale. Whoopies!
Next I ask her why give a 4k credit to carpeting instead of just reducing the sales price? Never got a good answer but she did say the seller were willing to court lower offers.
So she asks, what would I offer? "215k".
Of course that will never fly. Turns out someone offered 320k and the seller rejected. I'm guessing it was the bank(s) that said nada in reality.
I ask her why should I buy this small, dirty houses for 373k when I can drive 7 mins up Poleline and buy a 2150 sqft beautiful new house for 349k plus incentives? Bless her heart, she didn't say "because this lot is bigger" because the Davis house had a smaller lot then the KB build I was referring to. She did come back with my favorite response "are you sure you would want to consider Woodland?" To my credit, I did not give her my 17 minutes lecture on why Davis sucks. I was still in a somewhat good mood.
"But 215k is why below market price!". I'm sure you can picture me standing there, rolling my eyes can't you.
Why was I willing to offer so little? "a seller can sell to me at a 09-10' price now or they can carry it for a while then let the bank have it later. Either way, someone like me is eventually going to purchase it for 215k, now or later."
So now she wants to be my buyer's agent because I'm soooo smart- oh goodie! In actuality, she wants to be my agent because I can go conventional financing and don't have a house to sell before purchasing something new. Mentioning FIVA with 10% to 20% down and seasoned assets and it's like chumming the water off the Farallon Islands during seal calving season.
So I decide to play along. I tell her my range (180k to 220k in Woodland or 200k to 240k in Davis) and restrictions (No condos, nothing attached, SFRs over 1200 sqft only, nothing with a HOA). Apparently not only did she not listen, she had her ears plugged while singing "la la la la" as she went on to tell me that there were some cute small "halfplexes" off Bidwell behind the the Davis AC.
These are the Bidwell condos, where there are multiple pre-forclosures with 200 mo HOA fees. I correct her on the term Condo and leave it at that. Regardless, she says she is excited at the idea of finding me something. I give her my card and wonder off. She will never contact me again. Shame on her for trying to mislead me. It might have worked on someone else.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Backlash
Ever have one of those days when one little memory or action starts chain reaction? This happened to me this evening.
When I get a little depressed and think the markets will never become rational again, I go to Calculated Risk and look for one of Tanta's rockitorializing or spot-on posts. She's my guilty pleasure. After listening to "Doctor My Eyes" and watching Tanta slice and dice someone for trivializing the Bubble, I went searching for one thing and found another and had my "oh sh!t" moment of the week.
Things are going to get nasty and I do worry about the people who are going to be crushed through no fault of their own. Worrying led to frustration which then led to anger because I can't do jack to help these people. I was reminded of the "I'm sorry" website that sprang up after the 04' elections.
I keep a 2g memory stick of political art and photography and I saved a lot of the images from that site.
So I'm digging through my desk drawers for the stick and I came across a dark relic from the last big economic downturn. They are a set of business cards on beige paper printed to look like trading cards. They depict the four LAPD officers as Klan members and other hateful images. They were pressed into my hand outside the Federal building at Parker Center on April 29, 1992. I still have my "No Justice No Peace" sign and "Fire Gates" signs. I was about 7 feet away when the patrol car was flipped over by protestors. It had not be lit on fire... yet.
When I get a little depressed and think the markets will never become rational again, I go to Calculated Risk and look for one of Tanta's rockitorializing or spot-on posts. She's my guilty pleasure. After listening to "Doctor My Eyes" and watching Tanta slice and dice someone for trivializing the Bubble, I went searching for one thing and found another and had my "oh sh!t" moment of the week.
Things are going to get nasty and I do worry about the people who are going to be crushed through no fault of their own. Worrying led to frustration which then led to anger because I can't do jack to help these people. I was reminded of the "I'm sorry" website that sprang up after the 04' elections.
I keep a 2g memory stick of political art and photography and I saved a lot of the images from that site.
So I'm digging through my desk drawers for the stick and I came across a dark relic from the last big economic downturn. They are a set of business cards on beige paper printed to look like trading cards. They depict the four LAPD officers as Klan members and other hateful images. They were pressed into my hand outside the Federal building at Parker Center on April 29, 1992. I still have my "No Justice No Peace" sign and "Fire Gates" signs. I was about 7 feet away when the patrol car was flipped over by protestors. It had not be lit on fire... yet.
I don't mean to gloat
OK you caught me. I am gloating >; )
The news is in from Dataquik.
The news is in from Dataquik.
California Home Sale Price Medians by City
Home Sales Recorded in July 2007
DAVIS sales 41
July 2007 $471,000, July 2006 $570,000, % Change -17.37%
EL MACERO sales 29
July 2007 $574,000, July 2006 $518,000, % Change 10.81%
WEST SACRAMENTO sales 39
July 2007 $350,000, July 2006 $379,500, % Change -7.77%
WINTERS sales 8
July 2007 $353,000, July 2006 $410,000, % Change -13.90%
WOODLAND sales 44
July 2007 $377,000, July 2006$409,750, % Change -7.99%
Because I don't want to loose this article
This was published in 2007 and I applaude the effort that went into this article. As a resident of this two-faced town, Thank you Daniel
http://www.sacbee.com/weintraub/story/283946.html
http://www.sacbee.com/weintraub/story/283946.html
Daniel Weintraub: Liberal town?
Davis is white, wealthy and conservative
Sacramento Bee Sunday, July 22, 2007
When Helen Thomson's daughter went looking for housing a few years ago in her native Davis, the cheapest thing she could find was a half-million-dollar fixer-upper.
The home reeked from the smell of too many cats, and the floors sloped. "If you dropped a marble at the front door," Thomson says, "it would roll through the house and into the back yard." Her daughter settled for a house in West Sacramento instead.
Thomson, a Yolo County supervisor and Davis resident since 1965, says her family's story was typical.
"I've talked to a lot of people whose kids have tried to come back to the town they grew up in," she says. "They're not making it."
Thomson thinks the answer is to build more housing. But in Davis, that idea is enough to get you run out of town. Thomson ought to know. Just saying she would consider rezoning some farmland for homes has prompted anti-growth activists to threaten to recall her from office.
But even Thomson, a moderate by Davis standards, wouldn't support exploring a creative proposal put forward last week by Sacramento's biggest developer, Angelo K. Tsakopoulos, and the president of the state's stem cell institute, Robert Klein.
Tsakopoulos and his family own about 1,500 acres of farmland just east of the Davis city limits and south of Interstate 80. He proposed building houses on some of that land and then donating 60 percent of the proceeds to a nonprofit foundation that would build a research center for scientists looking to turn their stem cell discoveries into therapies that could cure disease.
Tsakopoulos, a major player in Democratic politics, has made a habit of buying up farmland or other open space and then trying to pressure local officials to rezone the land for housing in combination with some other strategy. In Sacramento, it was a new arena for the NBA's Kings. In Placer County, it was a private university.
Klein, a Silicon Valley millionaire who was the driving force behind Proposition 71, the stem cell bond voters approved in 2004, is hoping to run the new foundation. While his commitment to turning stem cell research into effective therapies is impressive, Klein's dual roles as president of the state stem cell board and head of a nascent foundation to turn those discoveries into profit-making medical inventions would be a conflict.
But their idea had merit. Davis, as a hub for biotech research, is as good a place as any to host the kind of center Klein is proposing. And the land Tsakopoulos was offering, while not ideal for the project, was certainly worth considering. It is adjacent to I-80, contiguous to existing development and four miles from the campus at the University of California, Davis.
Tsakopoulos proposed dedicating a portion of his land as a permanent buffer for a nearby wildlife refuge and setting aside two acres for every acre of farmland developed in the project.
None of that, however, was enough to persuade the Yolo County supervisors to even study the idea. After angry protests from Davis leaders, including recall threats against Thomson and fellow supervisor Mariko Yamada, the supervisors left the land off a list of parcels they wanted to consider for future development.
William Kopper, an environmental attorney and former Davis mayor, told The Bee the two supervisors never would have been elected had they told voters they were open to more development.
"Their conduct is a breach of trust with the voters," he said.
In the end, Thomson and Yamada said they were intrigued by the concept but could not support housing on the land Tsakopoulos owns. One reason: the need to protect prime farmland.
But they were talking here about 1,500 acres next to a major freeway and existing urban development. Yolo County currently has 550,000 acres zoned for agriculture, and 64 percent of the county's acreage is owned by farmers who get tax breaks in exchange for keeping their land free from development. The place is hardly in danger of being overrun.
Davis has a reputation as a liberal bastion. But the city is truly conservative, fighting change with every ounce of its political body. While the rest of California becomes more ethnically and economically diverse, Davis remains a mostly white enclave for wealthy, highly educated people.
The city is 70 percent white and 17 percent Asian American, but fewer than 3 percent of its residents are African American and only about 10 percent are Latino. Nearly 70 percent of its adult residents have college degrees, and more than a third have graduate degrees. The median family income of $74,000 at the last census was 50 percent higher than the national figure, and the median selling price for houses sold in June was about $550,000.
The children who grow up in Davis cannot afford to live in town once they leave their parents' homes, but their parents refuse to consider just about any project to build more houses. Anyone lucky enough to get a job in the city has to live elsewhere and commute in, causing more traffic congestion, smog and global warming. Wonderful.
Living on the edge
This is my neighborhood.
Those apartments are just up the street on Covell. Right across the street is the Cannery and Covell Village properties which were to be developed but the rabid-zero growth NIMBYites in Davis blocked it. Now it's all vacant lots, a great place to run to if you need to beat a hasty retreat.
I've had people where I work experience break-ins and thefts in the better parts of Davis in the last year. I expect to see lots of property crime in the areas on the perimeter of Davis as this economy turns worse.
Davis woman escapes gunman in apartment
Those apartments are just up the street on Covell. Right across the street is the Cannery and Covell Village properties which were to be developed but the rabid-zero growth NIMBYites in Davis blocked it. Now it's all vacant lots, a great place to run to if you need to beat a hasty retreat.
I've had people where I work experience break-ins and thefts in the better parts of Davis in the last year. I expect to see lots of property crime in the areas on the perimeter of Davis as this economy turns worse.
Davis woman escapes gunman in apartment
A Davis woman was able to escape two men who attempted what Davis police characterized as either a home invasion robbery or sexual assault Sunday afternoon. Around 4 p.m., one suspect produced a gun, forced his way into the apartment on Cranbrook Court and shoved the woman to the floor, Sgt. Glenn Glasgow said in a news release. The victim screamed and was able to push past the suspect and flee the apartment.
A second suspect outside the apartment was seen running from the complex with the first man, Glasgow said.
Foreclosures never happen in Davis
What a difference a few months makes.
As many have told me, repeatedly and at considerable volume, there are no bank owned properties in Davis. I had the listing agent of this house tell just that last Sunday as I toured the home. I was reassured that I could buy safely because the Davis market would not suffer the downturn that Woodland and Sacramento are facing.
Ladies and Gentelmen - please see exhibit A below
As many have told me, repeatedly and at considerable volume, there are no bank owned properties in Davis. I had the listing agent of this house tell just that last Sunday as I toured the home. I was reassured that I could buy safely because the Davis market would not suffer the downturn that Woodland and Sacramento are facing.
Ladies and Gentelmen - please see exhibit A below
And there you have it. I love being right >; )3030 WOODS CIR, Davis, CA 95616
2 bedroom, 1.5 bath 1,142 Square Feet Condo
Sold on 2003-12-24 for $285,000
Sold on 2006-07-31 for $385,000
Previous Listing: MLS #: 70058308 List Price: $372,000
Listing Date: 05/31/07
This beautiful 2 bedroom condo in the woods of stonegate is in a great location & is bordered by fantastic trees. Newer paint inside & out, a newer stove & newer ceiling fan. The floors are wood laminate & the carpet has been recently cleaned. Well-priced & easy to show. See it
today!
Listing: MLS #: 70083712 List Price: $332,900
Listing Date: 08/06/07
Bank owned property-allow 2-3 business days for offers to be reviewed. Buyers are to be pre-qualified by countrywide mortgage prior to submittal of purchase offer. Home being sold in as-is condition. Home is very clean
Hell and the Home Owners Association
I had a vision of hell yesterday.
The crazy man who agreed to marry me is from Chicago. His background is politics and he worked for the ILL state legislature before moving out to California. I point this out because while he's experienced "the Machine" in action, he wasn't prepared our trip Saturday.
My DH wanted to stop at Heritage, one of the developments for custom built homes in Woodland. He's thinking about buying a lot, sitting on it and building later. We're both simple people who like building things, anything and everything. We have this vision of lots of sweat equity no matter what we decide to buy.
However this is California, right outside of Davis. I have some idea of what it would entail but, bless his unusually optimistic soul, he wants take the idea out for a spin.
Apparently in this community the lots start at the price of a medium condo. The restrictions are so numerous that you all still end up essentially living in the same style and floorplan, which can't be under 3000 sqft. I asked the salesperson
why you would build here instead of Davis since the prices and restrictions were about the same. She didn't answer but she did say that buying here gave you the
possiblity of sending your kids to either Davis or Woodland schools.
This isn't an option in the other developments right down and across the street
but then those homes aren't sporting $800,000 price tags. That is so Davis- if you throw money at them, you can get into their school district.
So we go and tour a spec home in the development. We came away completely unimpressed. The lot wasn't any bigger then the Centex offerings down the street at $620k. The flyer raved about barrel and vaulted ceilings. It had one small barrel in the family room and a small vaulted in a bedroom. The master was small and the floorplan made it feel like 2600 sqft.
A trip to Califoria Closets, a lot of molding, and some really unfortunate marble tile choices made this place custom. I named it "the over-priced house of brown". Never thought I'd ever say it but Centex had these yahoos beat hands down on price and quality. I think I have to go wash my hands now >; )
The crazy man who agreed to marry me is from Chicago. His background is politics and he worked for the ILL state legislature before moving out to California. I point this out because while he's experienced "the Machine" in action, he wasn't prepared our trip Saturday.
My DH wanted to stop at Heritage, one of the developments for custom built homes in Woodland. He's thinking about buying a lot, sitting on it and building later. We're both simple people who like building things, anything and everything. We have this vision of lots of sweat equity no matter what we decide to buy.
However this is California, right outside of Davis. I have some idea of what it would entail but, bless his unusually optimistic soul, he wants take the idea out for a spin.
Apparently in this community the lots start at the price of a medium condo. The restrictions are so numerous that you all still end up essentially living in the same style and floorplan, which can't be under 3000 sqft. I asked the salesperson
why you would build here instead of Davis since the prices and restrictions were about the same. She didn't answer but she did say that buying here gave you the
possiblity of sending your kids to either Davis or Woodland schools.
This isn't an option in the other developments right down and across the street
but then those homes aren't sporting $800,000 price tags. That is so Davis- if you throw money at them, you can get into their school district.
So we go and tour a spec home in the development. We came away completely unimpressed. The lot wasn't any bigger then the Centex offerings down the street at $620k. The flyer raved about barrel and vaulted ceilings. It had one small barrel in the family room and a small vaulted in a bedroom. The master was small and the floorplan made it feel like 2600 sqft.
A trip to Califoria Closets, a lot of molding, and some really unfortunate marble tile choices made this place custom. I named it "the over-priced house of brown". Never thought I'd ever say it but Centex had these yahoos beat hands down on price and quality. I think I have to go wash my hands now >; )
Tips on Successfully Renting In the Coming Real Estate Crash
Tips on Successfully Renting In the Coming Real Estate Crash
1 Avoid property management firms like the plague.
They seem to do nothing but cost both parties money for little service. I've done my best by renting from owners who love that I can snake my own drains, replace crown molding, replace a small subfloor section that's rotting, etc.
When renting from an owner, consider these things:
A.) Gauge the personality of your potential new landlord.
Are they now renting a home that they were trying to sell? I did this in Tarzana in 1990. The owners were flippers and pissed as hell at being on the wrong side of the housing bubble. The home wouldn't sell after they completed a bunch of upgrades and an addition using substandard materials. This evil little Jewish woman rented it to us and just made us miserable. She lived locally and her daughter lived right next door. She'd walk into the home without notice. She'd
sneak in so quiet I almost hit her with a baseball bat once. She harassed us the entire time. We left as soon as the lease was completed.
B.) What else can you bring to the table?
Are you willing to really take care of the place? Most individual landlords are terrified of renting to demanding, high maintenance tenants. So don't be that person - easy cheesy lemon squeezy. High-maintenance tenants need to rent high-end apartments or they will never be happy. On the other side of the spectrum, the amazing Mr. Gwynster and I have no fear of working on the home. We do draw the line at running gas lines and major structural issues. These are things
the landlords will need to deal with on their own.
If you can work out something regarding regular maintenance and perhaps doing some small sweat equity projects in return for small reduction in rent - I say go for it. You'll like the property more, the owners will like you more, and it's a great excuse for buying power tools!
2 Be prepared to demonstrate financial and personal stability.
Remember that individual landlords are afraid of scary tenants. After prices escalated here in the greater Sacramento area, the only people left to buy were sub-prime individuals and speculators. We now have the same situation with rentals, just without later. If you were one of the savvy folks who sat on the sidelines during the real estate madness here, Sacramento is now your rental oyster.
If possible, when setting down to draw up the rental agreement, walk in with recent copies of your credit reports, a reference list, etc. I even include my resume and hand it all off to the homeowner.
In short, don't waste anyone's time on a scenario that will never work. If you have bad credit, point it out and bring something else along to define why and how it is being corrected. Basically, treat it like an interview if you want a good deal.
3 Be prepared to love the place.
1 Avoid property management firms like the plague.
They seem to do nothing but cost both parties money for little service. I've done my best by renting from owners who love that I can snake my own drains, replace crown molding, replace a small subfloor section that's rotting, etc.
When renting from an owner, consider these things:
A.) Gauge the personality of your potential new landlord.
Are they now renting a home that they were trying to sell? I did this in Tarzana in 1990. The owners were flippers and pissed as hell at being on the wrong side of the housing bubble. The home wouldn't sell after they completed a bunch of upgrades and an addition using substandard materials. This evil little Jewish woman rented it to us and just made us miserable. She lived locally and her daughter lived right next door. She'd walk into the home without notice. She'd
sneak in so quiet I almost hit her with a baseball bat once. She harassed us the entire time. We left as soon as the lease was completed.
B.) What else can you bring to the table?
Are you willing to really take care of the place? Most individual landlords are terrified of renting to demanding, high maintenance tenants. So don't be that person - easy cheesy lemon squeezy. High-maintenance tenants need to rent high-end apartments or they will never be happy. On the other side of the spectrum, the amazing Mr. Gwynster and I have no fear of working on the home. We do draw the line at running gas lines and major structural issues. These are things
the landlords will need to deal with on their own.
If you can work out something regarding regular maintenance and perhaps doing some small sweat equity projects in return for small reduction in rent - I say go for it. You'll like the property more, the owners will like you more, and it's a great excuse for buying power tools!
2 Be prepared to demonstrate financial and personal stability.
Remember that individual landlords are afraid of scary tenants. After prices escalated here in the greater Sacramento area, the only people left to buy were sub-prime individuals and speculators. We now have the same situation with rentals, just without later. If you were one of the savvy folks who sat on the sidelines during the real estate madness here, Sacramento is now your rental oyster.
If possible, when setting down to draw up the rental agreement, walk in with recent copies of your credit reports, a reference list, etc. I even include my resume and hand it all off to the homeowner.
In short, don't waste anyone's time on a scenario that will never work. If you have bad credit, point it out and bring something else along to define why and how it is being corrected. Basically, treat it like an interview if you want a good deal.
3 Be prepared to love the place.
If you don't like it, don't rent it. Coming home to a place you hate sucks and you'll resent the resent the home and the landlord and it all goes downhill from there. In summer of 07, you will have so much to choice from so there is no pressure. We housing bears are nothing if not patient.
4 Be careful of renting a home now that the seller could not move before the bubble burst.
Imagine purchasing a home to flip using the last of your resources and finding yourself underwater and unable to sell. You'd be terrified too. Local landlords can be a pain if they are new to it and frantic about the property. The closer they are to loosing the property due to over-leveraging, the worse they will be.
If the potential landlords aren't local then you get some breathing room. Remember that you are renting a home to live in, not a mansion to maintain as a central valley shrine to their bad financial timing. Don't trash the property but don't be afraid if it either. And never rent a property while it's on the market to be sold. I insist that the home remain off the market while I am a tenant. If you get a bad feeling about the expectations, run, don't walk away from it.
On the other hand, the best landlord I ever had lived in Land Park. She was renting her old family fourplex downtown with no intention of selling for years. The place was a gem in the rough. She'd make me cookies every Christmas. I attended the funeral of her husband and cried along with her. We had a great relationship and I stayed there for 10 years until she had her daughter in law take over the management.
5 Do the math before you go shopping.
For us housing bears, this is such a no-brainer but I had to include it. Look at the neighborhood choices, look at what is being asked and then see what is actually being rented. I recently have seen a 3/2 and 4/3 renting for the same amount one street apart. Guess which one is still on the market 2 months later?
I had restricted my search to Davis and Woodland but these people are still drinking from the 2005 punch bowl. I'm now looking at Natomas and I'm amazed at the listings, all competing for those few people with the incomes, financial worthiness, and stability to be rent their 4/3 homes. So much is out there that you can actually watch them under bid themselves in real time.
There will be better deals in Natomas, Rocklin, Folsom, and Elk Grove long before you see them in the central city. Just make sure to keep #4 in mind because these areas will also see the worst of the downturn.
6 Advertise yourself
Think of finding anew place to rent like networking to find that next great job. I posted on Craigslist stating what I wanted and what I could offer. I've been blown away at the response. The downside is you also get a lot of offers you'd never consider (no I will not commit to a land lease on your Oakpark albatross). Just stick to your budget and don't budge.
7 Don't forget to save!
Don't spend more then 25% of your income on a rental. Bad things can and will happen to the best and smartest of us. Use this upcoming lull in rental prices to sock away money for that down-payment once prices come back down.
"can't afford to live in Davis "
From the Sacramento Bee:
"Another breed of motorist on I-80, however, is an environmental concern. It's the motorist who lives in Dixon or Vacaville or Woodland who must drive to the university job in Davis. It's the motorist who creates traffic and air pollution because he or she can't afford to live in Davis because the city lacks the housing supply to meet the demand. Other cities are building the necessary homes (neighborhoods are generally money-losers for municipal governments, not profit centers). We don't recall Woodland or Dixon or West Sacramento ever suing Davis for its land-use decisions that end up creating traffic and air quality impacts on the region."
"Another breed of motorist on I-80, however, is an environmental concern. It's the motorist who lives in Dixon or Vacaville or Woodland who must drive to the university job in Davis. It's the motorist who creates traffic and air pollution because he or she can't afford to live in Davis because the city lacks the housing supply to meet the demand. Other cities are building the necessary homes (neighborhoods are generally money-losers for municipal governments, not profit centers). We don't recall Woodland or Dixon or West Sacramento ever suing Davis for its land-use decisions that end up creating traffic and air quality impacts on the region."
Davis is different: a rant who's time has come
On a blog I regularly read, a poster commented on the housing market in Davis and how he felt that the local paper would never accurately cover the decline. I agree whole heartedly that the Davis Enterprise is not going to do any real reporting on the housing or rental market. They are far too beholden to local landed gentry, no matter how independent and liberal they feel themselves to be.
We had Measure X last fall which the citizenry voted down. I really believe the only reason it didn't pass was because too many property owners were worried about additional inventory reducing their perceived equity.
But those local home owners didn’t really perceive that the whole slow growth argument behind “NO on X” had been defeated long before we went to the polls. Woodland's new developments are fast approaching the Davis city limits. This of course makes the failure of measure X moot. These new homes are superior to most of the Davis. They are larger, family friendly, and just a 10 minute drive away from central Davis. “Exclusivity” is not going to save the Davis market.
The big employer here is UCD which is awful about employee compensation, the exception of top administrators and some faculty. There are not enough of those choice positions to save the Davis market. Most UCD employees are older and either bought here years and years ago. The younger workers generally commute in from other areas. So UCD is contributing to the problem, not solving it.
In addition, UCD can't seem to attract new talent to the campus which could become buyers either. In fact, the whole UC system is loosing employees. Some workers are leaving for positions at other universities out of the state with comparable pay. Others are retiring and relocating out of the area, selling homes to cash in on equity gains and taking their retirement nest eggs with them. So the local economy is not propping up values.
So who is left to save Davis from the Bubble?
Until recently parents of UCD students would buy a condo or house for their child to live in while they attended school. The proud parents would then sell the house after son or daughter’s graduation. We used to see this begin each spring, leaving few homes on the market for the local population.
However, Spring 06 in Davis was dead. Recent graduates aren't remaining. The employment opportunities in areas with healthier housing markets are too numerous to entice them into staying. As inventory continued to increase into the summer, I’ve seen everything from serial re-listings to hide the days on market to price haircuts of up to $50k in one swift stroke. The few buyers left in Davis demanded price reductions or incentives, often both.
That means the only target market left is families commuting into Sacramento. Woodland, with its better housing value, is just as easy to commute from as Davis. But with prices declining in Sacramento, why does the buyer need to commute at all when homes near their employer are usually much better priced?
But what about the few Davis home owners who were commuting to Bay Area jobs? They are either currently trying to sell or have already left.
So to summarize, Davis' sustainable housing value is pretty much a figment of realty marketing imagination.
We had Measure X last fall which the citizenry voted down. I really believe the only reason it didn't pass was because too many property owners were worried about additional inventory reducing their perceived equity.
But those local home owners didn’t really perceive that the whole slow growth argument behind “NO on X” had been defeated long before we went to the polls. Woodland's new developments are fast approaching the Davis city limits. This of course makes the failure of measure X moot. These new homes are superior to most of the Davis. They are larger, family friendly, and just a 10 minute drive away from central Davis. “Exclusivity” is not going to save the Davis market.
The big employer here is UCD which is awful about employee compensation, the exception of top administrators and some faculty. There are not enough of those choice positions to save the Davis market. Most UCD employees are older and either bought here years and years ago. The younger workers generally commute in from other areas. So UCD is contributing to the problem, not solving it.
In addition, UCD can't seem to attract new talent to the campus which could become buyers either. In fact, the whole UC system is loosing employees. Some workers are leaving for positions at other universities out of the state with comparable pay. Others are retiring and relocating out of the area, selling homes to cash in on equity gains and taking their retirement nest eggs with them. So the local economy is not propping up values.
So who is left to save Davis from the Bubble?
Until recently parents of UCD students would buy a condo or house for their child to live in while they attended school. The proud parents would then sell the house after son or daughter’s graduation. We used to see this begin each spring, leaving few homes on the market for the local population.
However, Spring 06 in Davis was dead. Recent graduates aren't remaining. The employment opportunities in areas with healthier housing markets are too numerous to entice them into staying. As inventory continued to increase into the summer, I’ve seen everything from serial re-listings to hide the days on market to price haircuts of up to $50k in one swift stroke. The few buyers left in Davis demanded price reductions or incentives, often both.
That means the only target market left is families commuting into Sacramento. Woodland, with its better housing value, is just as easy to commute from as Davis. But with prices declining in Sacramento, why does the buyer need to commute at all when homes near their employer are usually much better priced?
But what about the few Davis home owners who were commuting to Bay Area jobs? They are either currently trying to sell or have already left.
So to summarize, Davis' sustainable housing value is pretty much a figment of realty marketing imagination.
Population change for 2000 to 2005
| Estimates of the Components of Population Change 4-1-00 to 7-1-05 | ||||
| Geographic Area | Total Population Change* | Natural Increase | ||
| Births less Deaths | Net International Migration | Net Internal Migration | ||
| United States | 14,985,802 | 8,651,861 | 6,333,941 | - |
| .New York | 277,809 | 527,876 | 667,007 | -1,001,100 |
| .California | 2,260,494 | 1,557,112 | 1,415,879 | -664,460 |
| .Illinois | 343,724 | 406,425 | 328,020 | -391,031 |
| .Massachusetts | 49,638 | 131,329 | 162,674 | -236,415 |
| .New Jersey | 303,578 | 220,220 | 290,194 | -194,901 |
| .Ohio | 110,897 | 217,877 | 75,142 | -177,150 |
| .Michigan | 182,380 | 235,760 | 122,901 | -165,084 |
| .Louisiana | 54,670 | 129,889 | 20,174 | -89,547 |
| .Kansas | 55,863 | 76,138 | 38,222 | -57,763 |
| .District of Columbia | -21,538 | 12,393 | 20,618 | -53,550 |
| .Idaho | 135,140 | 58,884 | 14,522 | 61,273 |
| .Oregon | 219,620 | 75,196 | 72,263 | 77,821 |
| .Washington | 393,619 | 180,160 | 134,242 | 80,974 |
| .Virginia | 488,435 | 231,055 | 139,977 | 103,521 |
| .Tennessee | 273,697 | 117,203 | 49,973 | 109,707 |
| .South Carolina | 243,267 | 97,715 | 36,401 | 115,084 |
| .Texas | 2,008,176 | 1,155,182 | 663,161 | 218,722 |
| .North Carolina | 636,751 | 248,097 | 158,224 | 232,448 |
| .Georgia | 885,760 | 376,105 | 192,844 | 232,666 |
| .Nevada | 416,550 | 81,661 | 66,098 | 270,945 |
| .Arizona | 808,660 | 241,732 | 168,078 | 408,160 |
| .Florida | 1,807,040 | 246,058 | 528,085 | 1,057,619 |
| *Total population change includes residual - see "State and County Terms & Definitions" | ||||
| Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Release Date: 12-22-2005 | ||||
They said it could never happen here
Another 3/1 SFR house right around the corner from me for sale. Looks like another flipper in trouble and loosing some money while doing it. It's located on a pretty busy street.
708 L street, Davis CA 95616
MLS 60058871
Price Reduced: 06/19/06 -- $468,000 to $450,000
Price Reduced: 07/20/06 -- $450,000 to $425,000
Price Reduced: 07/26/06 -- $425,000 to $415,000
And everyone said no one would ever loose money in Davis real estate.....
708 L street, Davis CA 95616
MLS 60058871
Price Reduced: 06/19/06 -- $468,000 to $450,000
Price Reduced: 07/20/06 -- $450,000 to $425,000
Price Reduced: 07/26/06 -- $425,000 to $415,000
| Sale History | |
| 09/21/2005: | $427,000 |
|---|---|
| 09/01/2000: | $169,000 |
And everyone said no one would ever loose money in Davis real estate.....
a little morning schadenfreude
It's finally official - Sacramento real estate is in decline
Sacramento Bee article: home prices head south
I did my usual check on zip realty:
264 single family homes and condos on the market in Davis
133 are reduced
The above numbers do not include the FSBOs and the reduced number doesn't include sellers relisting at lower prices like this one below
916 PENNSYLVANIA PL, Davis, CA 95616
MLS 60077388
Originally listed at $539,000 April 10th 2006 and back on market at $499,000 now. It's located 2 doors down from the rail line and right across the street from some student apartments. To make this owner even less happy, I've counted 11 properties within a mile all under his price. Some are even in much better shape with better amenties and 2 are under $400,000.
Sale History from Zillow
05/23/2003: $360,000
06/23/2000: $195,000
People here just don't make that kind of money to be able to afford $300,000 homes.
I know most of my friends are still bullish on RE and believe it can't possibly go down. I know I'm going to feel bad for some of them (they are my friends after all) when the jaw-dropping brick of reality comes crashing through their suburan picture windows and hits them upside the head.
Sacramento Bee article: home prices head south
I did my usual check on zip realty:
264 single family homes and condos on the market in Davis
133 are reduced
The above numbers do not include the FSBOs and the reduced number doesn't include sellers relisting at lower prices like this one below
916 PENNSYLVANIA PL, Davis, CA 95616
MLS 60077388
Originally listed at $539,000 April 10th 2006 and back on market at $499,000 now. It's located 2 doors down from the rail line and right across the street from some student apartments. To make this owner even less happy, I've counted 11 properties within a mile all under his price. Some are even in much better shape with better amenties and 2 are under $400,000.
Sale History from Zillow
05/23/2003: $360,000
06/23/2000: $195,000
People here just don't make that kind of money to be able to afford $300,000 homes.
I know most of my friends are still bullish on RE and believe it can't possibly go down. I know I'm going to feel bad for some of them (they are my friends after all) when the jaw-dropping brick of reality comes crashing through their suburan picture windows and hits them upside the head.
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